Shares of Palantir Technologies  (PLTR) jumped for the third consecutive day after speculation that its software may have played a role in the recent Venezuela raid.

The stock, which had been trading lower since Christmas, rebounded with a 3.7% gain on Jan. 5 and climbed another 3.3% on Jan. 6. It is now up 3.4% midday on Jan. 7.

Palantir has not commented on the raid.

Palantir was one of the hottest AI names in 2024 and 2025, with shares rising 340% and 135%, respectively, driven by surging demand for its AI software and record revenue growth. The stock is up nearly 3,000% over the past three years.

Palantir develops data analytics and AI software platforms, including Gotham, Foundry, Apollo, and Palantir Artificial Intelligence Platform, helping organizations analyze complex data.

Its stock’s momentum has been fueled in part by demand from the U.S. government, especially military agencies. In July 2025, Palantir was awarded a contract with the U.S. Army worth up to $10 billion. 

Investors are now weighing whether the latest catalyst can help sustain Palantir’s lofty valuation as the firm heads into its upcoming earnings report.

Palantir reported $1.18 billion in revenue for Q3 2025.

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What to watch in Palantir’s upcoming earnings

Palantir repeatedly raised its financial outlook in 2025, most recently after its third-quarter earnings report.

On November 3, Palantir stock hit an all-time high, closing at $207.52 after the company reported a strong third quarter. 

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The company reported $1.18 billion in revenue, up 63% from a year earlier, with U.S. commercial sales jumping 121% to $397 million. Adjusted earnings came in at 21 cents a share, beating analysts’ estimate of 17 cents.

Palantir is set to report fourth-quarter earnings in early February, and expectations are running high after a string of strong results.

Wall Street is now looking for adjusted earnings of 23 cents per share on revenue of about $1.34 billion. That would mark a sharp jump from the 14 cents per share reported a year earlier and imply year-over-year revenue growth of roughly 62%, a rate in line with the pace seen in the prior quarter.

But the bigger issue is valuation. Even if Palantir delivers another solid quarter, Wall Street will question whether the results are strong enough to justify the stock’s roughly 245 times forward earnings multiple. 

Palantir stock trades at a dangerous place, analyst says

Stephen Guilfoyle, a 30-year Wall Street veteran who runs family trading operation Sarge986 LLC, has long been one of Palantir’s supporters. But the veteran trader says the stock’s technical picture has taken a clear turn for the worse.

In a note published on TheStreet Pro, Guilfoyle said Palantir’s recent setup has deteriorated quickly after failing to hold a key breakout.

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“Readers will see that the shares were set up for perhaps another bull run in mid-December after developing a cup with handle pattern with a $190 pivot,” Guilfoyle wrote. “The stock did trade as high as $198 coming out of that formation. Then the breakout failed. Now, we’re looking at something substantially more dangerous.”

Guilfoyle said multiple technical indicators have all deteriorated since late December. What had been a constructive cup with a handle pattern has morphed into a rising wedge, a classic bearish reversal signal. 

“Over the past few days, the stock lost its 21-day EMA, forcing swing traders to act,” he wrote. “Then, the stock lost its 50-day simple moving average. Losing that line likely compelled professional managers to reduce exposure, which is why Friday [Jan. 2] was so ugly.”

Guilfoyle also noted that Palantir has not fully broken away from its 50-day average.

“A level is never truly lost until contact is lost,” he said.

Though having seen short-term bearish signals, Guilfoyle said he is not yet adjusting his $238 target price for Palantir. But the stock is running out of time.

“If the stock does not retake its 50-day SMA and do that soon, I will be forced to not only adjust that target but also sell some shares,” Guilfoyle warned.

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