Technical Analysis – Ether erases weekly gains, drops to 3,125

• ETHUSD extends over 6.5% pullback from range ceiling
• But remains range-bound above key SMAs
• Momentum indicators signal fading bullish bias in near term

Ether (ETHUSD) is extending a sharp two-day slide of over 6.5%, trading near 3,125 on Thursday, as the early-January crypto rebound cools, despite a broadly supportive risk-on backdrop and growing expectations for Fed rate cuts.

The latest moves track a shift in traditional equity markets, with other risk assets also losing momentum. This weakness appears driven less by a single catalyst and more by a cluster of headwinds, including mixed ETF flows and the absence of improving liquidity conditions.

At this stage, the rejection at the range ceiling near 3,300 keeps the largest altcoin confined within the multi-month 2,800-3,300 range that has held since mid-November. The momentum indicators confirm the fading bullish bias, with the RSI and stochastics dropping sharply toward their mid-levels, while the MACD is hovering marginally around its signal and zero lines.

Initial support is seen at the cluster of the converging 20- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) near the 3,000 psychological level, followed by the ascending trendline from April lows near 2,900 and the range floor at 2,800. A deeper retracement could target 2,620, near the November low following the pullback from the August 24 record peak.

Conversely, a break above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the August-November decline at 3,171 could open the way for a retest of the 3,300 range ceiling, then 3,500, and eventually the 200-day SMA near 3,612.

Overall, Ether remains in consolidation mode but is still up over 5% year-to-date after ending 2025 more than 10% lower. A decisive break below the SMA cluster near 3,000 will be critical to testing the durability of the early-year rebound, as failure to hold above this level would leave the second-largest cryptocurrency under sustained downside pressure.