President Donald Trump says the U.S. is “taking billions and billions of dollars’ worth of oil” from Venezuela and adds, “it could be trillions of dollars,” according to an interview on Fox News. 

President Trump also says U.S. oil companies will go into Venezuela, spend “billions of dollars,” fix “badly broken” infrastructure, and “start making money for the country,” according to WatcherGuru’s Jan. 3 post on X (formerly Twitter).

In a separate post on his Truth Social account, the president says Venezuela will be turning over between 30 million and 50 million barrels of “high quality, sanctioned oil” to the U.S., as later highlighted by WatcherGuru.

Trump’s language makes it sound as if the U.S. is about to flip a switch and unleash a wave of cheap oil on the world. That is not how the global oil system works, according to analysts quoted by Energy Intelligence and Yahoo Finance.

Related: Top energy stocks to buy amid Venezuela chaos

What Venezuela’s oil really looks like

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven oil reserves on paper, but its production has collapsed after years of mismanagement and sanctions, a January explainer from Investopedia notes.

Oil output averaged around 840,000 barrels per day in 2025, a fraction of the more than 3 million barrels per day it once pumped, according to Energy Intelligence data cited in that analysis.

Venezuela’s Crude Oil Production Chart

OPEC: Crude Oil Production: Secondary Sources: Venezuela

Much of Venezuela’s crude is heavy and sour, which is more challenging and expensive to produce and refine than light, sweet oil, according to Investopedia’s review of the country’s geology and infrastructure.

That quality issue helps explain why Venezuela has struggled to turn enormous reserves into stable export income, even before the latest political and military shocks, according to the same report.

In short, you’re not looking at an easy, quick “new Saudi Arabia” that automatically halves gasoline prices. You’re looking at a damaged oil industry that would require massive time and money to rebuild.

How Venezuelan oil hits U.S. refineries

Refineries on the U.S. Gulf Coast that are configured for heavy crude would be “keen to run more discounted Venezuelan volumes, should they become available,” according to analysts and company officials quoted by Energy Intelligence.

Some refinery units “were designed to run Venezuelan crude” and “will always run best on this crude compared to other feedstock,” a refinery consultant told Energy Intelligence.

If Trump’s plan to take control of Venezuelan oil flows works as advertised, U.S. refiners could increase their intake of heavy Venezuelan crude by about 200,000 barrels per day at first, with potential for more after some adjustments.

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Venezuela is also expected to send the U.S. up to 50 million barrels of oil from storage as part of early arrangements, according to market reporting from Argus Media.

Here’s what that means for you as a driver: Those barrels help refineries that like heavy oil, but they do not transform the entire market overnight. They mainly give U.S. plants more flexibility and potentially cheaper feedstock on the margins, according to Energy Intelligence.

What a U.S. takeover of Venezuelan oil could mean for gas prices

Crude prices fell after the U.S. lifted sanctions on Venezuelan exports and President Trump said Venezuela’s interim authorities consented to relinquish up to 50 million barrels of “high‑quality sanctioned oil” to the U.S., according to a market wrap from Barchart carried by Yahoo Finance. 

Even with that dip, both crude and gasoline futures only moved modestly, underscoring how small those volumes are compared with a roughly 100 million‑barrel‑per‑day global market, according to that same report.

Some Americans think gasoline prices will fall sharply after Maduro’s capture, but “I’m here to temper those expectations,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.

De Haan expects prices to reach their near‑term lows before their usual seasonal rise in spring, not because of a Venezuela shock, but because of broader market patterns.

Goldman Sachs expects Venezuela’s production to remain around 900,000 barrels per day this year, with a possible doubling by 2030 that might trim global oil prices by roughly 4 dollars per barrel, according to a forecast cited by Yahoo Finance in a separate piece.

That kind of long‑term trend could support slightly lower or more stable gasoline prices, but it is not the kind of near‑term gas‑tax holiday that political rhetoric often implies.

Why reviving Venezuela’s oil sector won’t be a quick fix

Reviving Venezuela’s oil sector is a “tall, expensive order” that will require massive investment in labor, equipment, security, and infrastructure, according to the Energy Intelligence assessment.

Analysts quoted in that report say the country’s oil fields and facilities have deteriorated so badly that improvements will take years, even if sanctions are eased and foreign companies pour in capital.

U.S. sanctions and compliance rules also remain a moving target. The law firm Morgan Lewis says recent changes in licenses and enforcement show Washington is still willing to block tankers, restrict equipment, and tighten terms on companies working with Venezuela.

That means President Trump’s talk of “total access” and U.S. control runs straight into a complex legal and regulatory thicket.

Put simply, more friendly policy and U.S. know‑how can help get Venezuelan barrels moving, but they cannot erase years of structural damage or the global forces that mainly drive oil and gasoline prices, according to Investopedia.

What consumers should watch as Venezuela oil story unfolds

As a consumer, you have no power over Trump’s Venezuela policy or refinery engineering, but you can watch a few simple markers that connect his “billions and billions” claim to your wallet.

  • Retail gas prices: Track the national AAA average and your local stations. If Venezuelan barrels matter, you’re more likely to see spikes capped than a sudden price crash, according to GasBuddy’s De Haan and other market analysts.
  • Gulf Coast refinery runs: When Texas and Louisiana refineries run hard on reliable heavy crude, they help keep gasoline flowing to the rest of the country. Venezuelan crude could replace some expensive alternative feedstocks and improve flexibility.
  • Sanctions and legal shifts: Any new licenses, waivers, or enforcement actions on Venezuela from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control will dictate how much oil actually moves and under what conditions, according to a Morgan Lewis briefing on post‑Maduro compliance risks.

The bottom line for your wallet

The president’s new sound bite that the U.S. is “taking billions and billions of dollars’ worth of oil” from Venezuela, and that “it could be trillions of dollars,” sounds like a promise of cheap gas on demand.

In my read of the data from Energy Intelligence, Investopedia, and Yahoo Finance analysts, Venezuela looks more like a slow‑moving safety valve than a switch that cuts prices overnight.

My honest takeaway is that Venezuela’s oil might help keep future spikes from getting even uglier, but it is unlikely to slash what you pay at the pump anytime soon.

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